Какво ще стане след Brexit? Как мислите, че ще ни се отрази на нас и на ЕС?

In practice the EU will offer Britain only two possible deals. The first is to join Norway in the European Economic Area. This would preserve full access to the single market. But, like Norway, Britain would have to make a hefty contribution to the EU budget (Norway pays about 85% as much as Britain per head), observe all EU single-market regulations with no say in making them and, crucially, accept free movement of people from the EU. It is hard to imagine a post-Brexit government accepting this. The second is a free-trade deal like the EU’s with Canada. Yet this does not cover all trade, does not eliminate non-tariff barriers, excludes most financial services and could take years to agree.

The other option for Britain is to revert to trading with the EU as America, China and India do, under normal World Trade Organisation rules. But most economists say this would make the economic damage from Brexit worse. It would bring back mutual tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals, food and fish. It would reinstate many non-tariff barriers. And it would exclude most services, including financial services.

The economic and trade problems arising from Brexit will dominate British politics for years to come. Security and foreign-policy concerns will also emerge. The home secretary, the security services and the police may try to replicate the co-ordinating measures that they have in place now with the rest of the EU, notably on intelligence-sharing. The Foreign Office may try to maintain its input into the EU’s foreign-policy discussions. But none of this will be easy and some may be impossible.

There will also be questions over the future of the United Kingdom. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted by clear majorities to remain in the EU, only to be overruled by the English and Welsh. Before the vote Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party, said Brexit might justify a second referendum on Scottish independence, though she is likely to proceed with caution. Northern Ireland will be more immediately troubled. If Britain ends free movement of people, that may require the return of a hard border between Northern Ireland and its southern neighbour.

The political fallout from the vote will extend far beyond the issue of Mr Cameron’s successor. The Tories are more split than ever: around 185 of their MPs backed Remain, and they will not welcome a Brexiteer as leader. But Labour, too, is in trouble. Many pro-European Labour MPs blame Mr Corbyn’s weak endorsement of Remain for the Leave victory. Labour lost Scotland at the 2015 election; it may now lose northern England, which voted heavily for Leave. The grinning Mr Farage was the only happy party leader on June 24th.

This vote will reverberate for years. The economy will suffer, as will the political establishment. June 23rd will be a landmark in British and European history.